In a striking shift of narrative, Elon Musk has declared that Tesla’s future valuation will derive 80% from its Optimus humanoid robots, not its electric vehicle business.
This declaration, made in tandem with the release of Tesla’s “Master Plan Part IV,” shifts the spotlight firmly to robotics and AI as the company’s aspirational core.
Optimus has morphed from a speculative experiment into Tesla’s defining strategic centerpiece. Musk envisions deploying “thousands” of robots in factories by year-end, with production ramping to 1 million units annually by 2030 and estimates the value of each robot to be between $20,000 and $30,000.
This pivot comes amid a marked slowdown in Tesla’s core business. Global EV deliveries have declined approximately 13% in the first half of 2025, prompting Musk to lean into robotics as a futuristic counterweight.
“My prediction is that a majority of Tesla’s long-term value will be Optimus,” he said at the firm’s shareholder meeting in June. Now that we know that majority might mean as high as 80% of that value, Wall Street has some thoughts.
Investors seem kinda into it?
Tesla stock modestly rose 1.4% following the announcement, outperforming the broader market. One driver of optimism may have been Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff praising Musk’s AI push after visiting Tesla’s robot facility.
Still, many analysts and investors remain upbeat. UBS, Wedbush, and Cantor Fitzgerald all wrote in notes to investors that they see promise in Tesla’s AI and robotics ventures, especially robotaxis and future Optimus lines, though near-term fundamentals remain weak.
Plus, despite investor jitters and an 8% stock drop after the earnings release, analysts such as Wedbush’s Dan Ives and Benchmark’s Mikey Legg retain bullish long-term outlooks. They point to Tesla’s liquidity and AI ambitions as foundations for future growth, even amid short-term volatility.
Goldman Sachs went so far as to write in a report last year that humanoid robots could “become the next commonly adopted technology after EVs and smartphones.”
Pundits see speedbumps
However, skepticism runs deep.
Several Tesla investors highlighted concerns about declining EV sales and political distractions undermining Tesla’s core operations, and questioned whether Musk’s pivot to robotics is masking deeper structural issues. Even with that worry, many Tesla backers say that when Musk left briefly, the company couldn’t maintain the same kind of value, with out without robots.
“”A lot of the share price is tied to the love of Elon and having robots do everything for us. But when he left, it was a house of cards,” James McRitchie, a private Tesla investor, told Reuters. “I think the same is probably true of Tesla. It’s a good company, but it could be a much better company and it’s over-valued.”
Neutral marketplace voices point to Tesla’s worst sales dip in years, with investors split. Analysts at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have trimmed forecasts, warning that the payoff from game-changing AI and robotics may be years away.
Rivals take a different road
Supporters argue that Optimus represents unprecedented optionality. A column in The Washington Post suggests humanoid robots could unlock productivity gains comparable to the advent of smartphones, potentially reshaping economies.
Rivals like Amazon appear unconvinced. Despite operating over 750,000 industrial robots in its warehouses, the e-commerce giant remains focused on non-humanoid automation, hinting at differing philosophies on robotics deployment.
Tesla’s declaration might be the boldest yet in Musk’s long history of audacious proclamations. Framing Optimus as the engine of 80% of its market value signals a decisive shift away from legacy auto manufacturing toward robotics and physical AI.
But how will they make money?
The biggest question still remains: When will these robots make any money?
Without a clear commercial roadmap, realistic development timelines, or evidence that humanoid robotics can scale profitably, investors could grow wary. The contrast between Tesla’s vision and Amazon’s pragmatism on robotics highlights a broader divergence in industrial strategy.
As Optimus moves from manifesto to market reality, Tesla must answer whether its bold robot-first thesis can deliver, or if it might join the ranks of overpromised tech dreams unfulfilled.