An exceptionally long lull in Atlantic storm activity finally came to an end Wednesday as Tropical Storm Gabrielle took shape. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect this storm to strengthen into the second hurricane of the season by Sunday.
Gabrielle’s emergence followed 20 days of no named storms in the Atlantic basin—a dry spell that WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry called “unprecedented” for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. As of Friday morning, Gabrielle had maximum sustained wind speeds of 50 miles per hour (80 kilometers per hour). The storm, in the Caribbean Sea, was located about 595 miles (960 kilometers) east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and moving west-northwest at 12 mph (19 kph).
What to expect from Gabrielle this weekend
NHC forecasters expect Gabrielle to follow a similar path to Hurricane Erin, the first of the 2025 season. This Category 5 storm skirted past the Caribbean Islands and slid up the U.S. East Coast without ever making landfall in August, but it still managed to churn up life-threatening rip currents and storm surge that impacted coastal communities.
Swells generated by Gabrielle should reach Bermuda Friday night and build through the weekend, bringing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, according to the NHC. As the storm tracks west, forecasters expect it to take a northerly turn that will keep it in the open Atlantic but bring it close to Bermuda on Monday. By then, it will likely already have strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (167 kph).
On Friday morning, Gabrielle was looking more organized than it did earlier in the week, according to Texas-based meteorologist Matt Lanza. This storm has been battling wind shear that should die down over the next couple days, creating more favorable conditions for strengthening. Lanza said there’s a slight chance the storm could reach major hurricane status by late Sunday or Monday, with one forecast model showing odds of rapid intensification over four times higher than normal.
“We’ve seen higher odds before, but that’s still rather healthy, all things considered,” Lanza wrote in a post on The Eyewall, a weather blog he co-authors.
It’s too early to predict how Gabrielle will affect the East Coast. While forecasters currently expect the storm to keep its distance, coastal impacts will depend on its strength. It’s possible that some communities could see rip currents and storm surge similar to the effects of Hurricane Erin, but again, this remains to be seen.
The Atlantic basin’s reawakening
Since the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season officially began on September 10, the basin has been unusually quiet. “In the modern satellite era (since 1966) we’ve never seen a shutout during this very active 18-day window of the season, when on average [four] named storms and [two] hurricanes form each season,” Lowry wrote in a post on his Substack, Eye on the Tropics.
As of Monday, the 2025 season’s overall activity was almost 50% below average, but it probably won’t stay that way for much longer, he reported. Gabrielle may be the first of several storms to emerge as storm formation zones shift closer to the U.S. East Coast heading into October, according to Lowry. Despite the recent lull, all eyes will remain on the Atlantic basin as we brace for its reawakening.