Ever since he helped avert a government shutdown in March—citing WIRED’s reporting on Elon Musk’s desire for one as part of his rationale—Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer has been waiting for this moment to redeem himself.
The problem is that Schumer may have already blown his chance. With a government shutdown now here, frustrations over Schumer’s leadership have been bubbling up behind the scenes as the party begins to look toward a post-Schumer era.
“It’s a foregone conclusion that he will not be leader,” a senior Democratic strategist tells me, requesting anonymity to discuss candid conversations with their colleagues. “Most people think he will not be leader in a year and a half’s time.” This would be after the 2026 midterms, with a new Congress in place and some key retirements among Schumer allies, such as Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois. But the last shutdown fight is still reopening old wounds.
They add that by averting a shutdown in March “in exchange for literally nothing, he delivered the president a budget.”
Schumer’s standing among Senate candidates in competitive races is “the worst it’s ever been,” a Democratic campaign consultant with clients running for Senate tells me. Schumer’s average approval rating is worse than Donald Trump’s, hovering in the mid-20s, according to an average of the polls estimated by RealClearPolitics. This year, for the first time in YouGov’s polling on Schumer going back to 2019, he’s dipped below 50 percent approval, twice, among Democrats nationwide.
The same qualities that made Schumer a beloved local politician and a historically popular statewide politician in New York—where he maintained strong relationships with colleagues and was sure to visit all 62 New York counties each year—have worked against him as a party leader in a time when he needs to make tough decisions that won’t make everyone happy.
“Schumer’s overriding quality as a leader is, he doesn’t like being criticized,” a senior Senate aide says. When asked if Schumer has done anything since March to show any improvement in his ability to strategize and communicate better in Trump 2.0, this source took a beat. “Um, no.”