My dear startup founder friend, You told me that everything is “hyper-determined,” that “life is a big game because of that.” You’re not alone in thinking this: Silicon Valley loves to preach inevitability. A Silicon Valley paradox “Technology has its own agenda.” — Kevin Kelly https://kk.org/thetechnium/the-unabomber-w/ “Technology happens because it is possible.” — Sam Altman https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/31/technology/sam-altman-open-ai-chatgpt.html “Probability that AI exceeds the intelligence of all humans combined by 2030 is ~100%.” — Elon Musk https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1871083864111919134?lang=fr Notice the pattern: inevitability, inevitability, inevitability. Precisely what you believe. Yet in reality, they could have gone surfing, lived quietly, done nothing. However, they worked obsessively, raised money, built companies, and reshaped the world. That was their agency, fully deployed. You’ll say, “They got lucky, it had to happen, if not them someone else. That’s why we all work ourselves to the bone.” Now hear me out: I believe they worked hard to achieve this outcome and they deserve the credit. But I also believe that with success comes responsibility — responsibility that evaporates the moment y’all imply inevitability. My goal here is to show you why the trope “it was inevitable” is misleading and it shifts responsibility away from those with power. To be clear, versions of this reasoning have appeared often in “pop science” and academic writing so I’m not claiming originality, but I hope to convince you that treating inevitability as fact comes with important downsides and it’s better to manage your life as if you’d had agency. inevitability What Silicon Valley calls inevitability is really a rhetorical posture: a way of talking about the future as if it could not be otherwise. It borrows from different philosophical schools of thought (fatalism, determinism, technological determinism) — each distinct, and often incompatible. This patchwork coalesces around the idea that it is inevitable and I don’t matter as an individual (because someone else would have done it). “This will happen nevertheless (even if I choose to fight it).” This is oddly compatible with their obsessive work: being the one who succeeds is merely a matter of luck and we help luck through hard work. True Prophets and False Predictions Tomorrow the sun will rise is a rock-solid prediction. Objects fall to the ground. Everyone dies. These sentences are so reliable we call them laws. We believe in them. Belief is an act of faith: we trust the future will resemble the past, that the laws won’t suddenly change. Yes, that trust has been earned through millennia of confirmation, but it’s still a belief in regularity. Just ask the turkey on Thanksgiving Day, who believed sunrise meant good food and safety… So even laws of nature require belief, and much more so for “social predictions” that are rooted in much fewer facts. When Sam is saying AI is inevitable, how can I tell if this prediction is a prophecy or an advertisement for his company? More generally, when someone makes a prediction I can’t know if it’s true (otherwise I’d be the one making the prediction). Therefore to act on it, I need to believe in it. Predictions as Communication A prediction is, by definition, a communicative act and communication theory teaches us that these acts are made to influence us. And I should be cognizant and wary of them (i.e. don’t accept them at face value). My prediction about the sunrise could be here to build belief in the scientific method. No prediction is neutral. Because they talk about the future, predictions are always either attempts to reshape the world, genuine forecasts, or a mix of both. And at a fundamental (epistemological) level, I can never know which is which. That is why inevitability talk is so powerful and so dangerous. They present themselves as a law of physics while it’s only an act of communication whose power comes from people believing in it. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Since I can’t know whether a prediction is persuasion, foresight or a mix of the two, the important question becomes: how should I act? Let’s analyze each position: “things are inevitable” or “if I fight it I might win.” Assuming you think everything is inevitable, you go into a self-fulfilling prophecy and some circular logic: “X is inevitable” → Stop trying to change it Stop trying → No agency exercised No agency exercised → X happens Prophecy fulfilled → X was inevitable You can replace X by AGI or anything. E.g., there’s an opportunity to win a prize but you won’t work at it because you’re a loser and everything is determined. And it works positively too: e.g., “I am a future champion” → so I become one. The other case is easier (and healthier): if you assume things are not inevitable then you can change the prediction by exercising your agency. You also accept some uncertainty in the process because it might not work out. If you believe in inevitability, it makes sense not to act. And if you don’t, it makes sense to act. Except, except… Using the previous paragraph, I explained it’s impossible for us to know if a prediction is inevitable or not. But if I use my agency, I have a higher chance of getting where I want things to be. Therefore, the only pragmatically rational stance is to embrace our agency. So the informed position is to treat all predictions I disagree with as something I need to fight to change. Not accept them. Especially if they’re inevitable. The Agency’s Wager Inevitability is rhetoric, not truth. Predictions aren’t laws of nature, they are acts of persuasion. And because no one can ever know how much is determined and how much is open, the only rational stance is to live as agents. Supersonic flight once looked inevitable until people stopped it. You, too, have already reshaped the world once; you can do it again. Don’t give away your power. My dear CEO friend, if you want to change the world, the first step is to believe you can. You may win or lose. Success is never guaranteed. But one thing is certain: the surest way to lose is to not fight.