Blue Origin rolled the first stage of its massive New Glenn rocket from its hangar on Wednesday morning in Florida, kicking off the final phase of the campaign to launch the heavy-lift vehicle for the second time.
In sharing video of the rollout to Launch Complex-36 on Wednesday online, the space company did not provide a launch target for the mission, which seeks to put two small Mars-bound payloads into orbit. The pair of identical spacecraft to study the solar wind at Mars is known as ESCAPADE.
However, sources told Ars that on the current timeline, Blue Origin is targeting a launch window of November 9 to November 11. This assumes pre-launch activities, including a static-fire test of the first stage, go well.
Actually, we will tell you the odds
Blue Origin has a lot riding on this booster, named "Never Tell Me The Odds," which it will seek to recover and reuse. Despite the name of the booster, the company is quietly confident that it will successfully land the first stage on a drone ship named Jacklyn. Internally, engineers at Blue Origin believe there is about a 75 percent chance of success.
From the outside, that estimate seems on the high side of things. During the rocket's first flight in January, the first stage was lost after successfully boosting its payload to orbit. Blue Origin has provided few details about the propulsion issues that led to the loss of the first stage, which never got close to the drone ship. But it's clear that the company was unable to test many of the key aspects of controlling the rocket's flight through the atmosphere and stabilizing itself upon touchdown. A lot of software has to go right to nail the delicate landing dance.