The National Hurricane Center expects Hurricane Erin to grow in size as it creeps up the Eastern Seaboard this week, hammering coastal communities with potentially deadly storm surge and rip currents.
Erin, one of the fastest rapidly intensifying Atlantic storms on record, is a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 miles per hour (175 kilometers per hour) as of 8:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, August 19, according to the NHC. Forecasters don’t expect Erin to make landfall in the U.S., but hurricane-force winds from this sprawling cyclone currently extend 80 miles (130 km) out from its eye. The storm’s far-reaching impact is primed to expand as it moves up the East Coast, prompting the NHC to issue widespread warnings.
“Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days,” the agency stated Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding could reach the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Wednesday, where watches are already in effect. Erin may also bring strong winds to coastal communities in the Mid-Atlantic, southern New England, and Bermuda on Thursday and Friday.
Threat of 100-foot waves
Last week, Jean-Raymond Bidlot, a senior scientist in ocean modeling at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), told Newsweek that Erin could produce massive waves as it slides up the East Coast. “The latest forecast does indeed indicate that the largest significant wave height could reach values in excess of 50 feet with an associated most likely largest wave of more than 100 feet,” he said.
Budlot noted that such waves would be hundreds of feet long as opposed to a single wall of water. This type of wave is typical for intense hurricanes and should not be mistaken for rogue waves, defined by NOAA as large, unexpected swells that are more than twice the size of surrounding waves.
“While 100 feet can’t be ruled out, I think they would only be possible if the storm [becomes] a Category 4 or 5 storm,” AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek. “I think waves near the center of 50-75 feet are much more realistic (assuming a Category 3 storm),” he added. On Tuesday morning, Erin’s maximum sustained wind speed was just below the Category 3 threshold.
Evacuation orders in North Carolina
The Outer Banks are bracing for the brunt of Erin’s impact as authorities warn the storm could produce dangerous rip currents and storm surge up to 15 feet (4.6 meters), the Associated Press reports. Tropical storm and storm surge watches were already in effect Tuesday morning, with impacts expected late Wednesday, according to the NHC.
On Monday, North Carolina’s Department of Transportation said evacuation orders were in effect for all visitors to Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands, adding that the mandate will take effect for residents Tuesday morning. According to the Associated Press, officials at Wrightsville Beach near Wilmington, North Carolina, rescued at least 60 swimmers from rip currents on Monday.
Another named storm may be close behind
As Erin moves out of the Caribbean, the NHC is monitoring another disturbance following close behind. This tropical wave is currently producing a broad band of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but there’s a 60% chance it could gradually develop into a tropical depression over the next seven days, according to the agency.
Forecasters expect this system to track west-northwestward and approach the Leeward Islands by Friday. It’s too soon to tell whether it could become the second Atlantic hurricane of 2025, but all eyes will remain on the Basin as we enter the peak of hurricane season.