In a striking shift of narrative, Elon Musk has declared that Tesla’s future valuation will derive 80% from its Optimus humanoid robots, not its electric vehicle business.
This declaration, made in tandem with the release of Tesla’s “Master Plan Part IV,” shifts the spotlight firmly to robotics and AI as the company’s aspirational core.
Optimus has morphed from a speculative experiment into Tesla’s defining strategic centerpiece. Musk envisions deploying “thousands” of robots in factories by year-end, with production ramping to 1 million units annually by 2030 and estimates the value of each robot to be between $20,000 and $30,000.
This pivot comes amid a marked slowdown in Tesla’s core business. Global EV deliveries have declined approximately 13% in the first half of 2025, prompting Musk to lean into robotics as a futuristic counterweight.
“My prediction is that a majority of Tesla’s long-term value will be Optimus,” he said at the firm’s shareholder meeting in June. Now that we know that majority might mean as high as 80% of that value, Wall Street has some thoughts.
Investors seem kinda into it?
Tesla stock modestly rose 1.4% following the announcement, outperforming the broader market. One driver of optimism may have been Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff praising Musk’s AI push after visiting Tesla’s robot facility.
Still, many analysts and investors remain upbeat. UBS, Wedbush, and Cantor Fitzgerald all wrote in notes to investors that they see promise in Tesla’s AI and robotics ventures, especially robotaxis and future Optimus lines, though near-term fundamentals remain weak.
Plus, despite investor jitters and an 8% stock drop after the earnings release, analysts such as Wedbush’s Dan Ives and Benchmark’s Mikey Legg retain bullish long-term outlooks. They point to Tesla’s liquidity and AI ambitions as foundations for future growth, even amid short-term volatility.
Goldman Sachs went so far as to write in a report last year that humanoid robots could “become the next commonly adopted technology after EVs and smartphones.”
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