A decade ago, everyone from internet trolls to the Obama administration had the same suggestion for young people seeking a stable, long-term career path: Learn to code. Today, due in large part to generative AI, that advice is flipped on its head. Don't learn to code. Maybe train to be a nurse.
Software engineers and other jobs with tasks dominated by math and computer functions are most at risk of being automated and displaced by AI, according to a survey released Thursday by SHRM, an organization that represents human resources professionals. SHRM surveyed more than 20,000 US workers to see what percentage of tasks are already automated across several different job types. It also looked at what nontechnical barriers stand in the way of automation, like customer preferences and regulatory requirements.
The results show an important distinction. Just because a lot of tasks can be done by machines doesn't mean a job is at risk of being taken or eliminated. The survey estimated that 15.1% of jobs held by US workers (23.2 million jobs) are at least 50% automated, and that 7.8% (12 million) are at least 50% done by generative AI. Yet only about 6% of US jobs (9.2 million) are vulnerable because they fit those descriptions.
In fact, the share of at-risk roles is much lower than predictions from the AI industry. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said earlier this year that AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs in the coming years, pushing unemployment to between 10% and 20%. Instead of a massive or abrupt deterioration of the labor market, we could see artificial intelligence propelling a more gradual reshaping of the workplace.
"It is a phenomenal technology that will certainly change the way we all view work, but it may not result in the types of job displacement that some are suggesting," James Atkinson, vice president of thought leadership at SHRM, told CNET.
Don't miss any of our unbiased tech content and lab-based reviews. Add CNET as a preferred Google source.
What stands in the way of job automation?
Concerns about AI taking jobs are well-documented, with multiple public opinion polls sounding the alarm. A Pew Research Center poll earlier this year, for example, found that 64% of Americans expected fewer jobs in the next 20 years because of AI.
SHRM's survey focused more specifically on individual workers and their jobs. One reason it polled so many people is that it wanted samples for as many job categories as possible. "We wanted to really get the perspective of the people doing the work day to day," Atkinson said.
Read more: AI Essentials: 29 Ways You Can Make Gen AI Work for You, According to Our Experts
... continue reading