Hurricane Melissa will make landfall in southern Jamaica less than 24 hours from now, and it is likely to be the most catastrophic storm in the Caribbean island’s history.
As it crawled across the northern Caribbean Sea on Monday morning, Melissa officially became a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The hurricane will likely fluctuate in intensity over the next day or so, perhaps undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. But the background conditions, including very warm Caribbean waters and low wind shear, will support a very powerful hurricane and the potential for further strengthening.
Strongest Jamaican hurricane
This means that Melissa will almost certainly be the strongest tropical system to strike Jamaica in more than 150 years of records, eclipsing Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which struck the island as a Category 3 storm and caused 45 deaths.
The island, the third largest in the Caribbean by area and with a population of more than 3 million people, has had plenty of advance warning about the threat of Melissa. Forecasts have generally indicated that the island would be in the storm’s crosshairs and that rapid intensification was likely over the weekend.
Credit: National Hurricane Center Official track forecast for Hurricane Melissa on Monday morning. Official track forecast for Hurricane Melissa on Monday morning. Credit: National Hurricane Center
Nevertheless, it’s difficult to prepare for a hurricane like this. Melissa has already brought waves of heavy rainfall to Jamaica, and before it exits to the north on Tuesday night, some locations are likely to see in excess of 40 inches. That will cause significant mudslides in the country. The storm’s winds will destroy buildings and power lines, and its surge will inundate coastal areas.