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Affinity, targeting office workers over pros, making pro tools the loss leader

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Technically, there are more than ever, based on Adobe’s own numbers—as of last year, 37 million people subscribed to Creative Cloud, which is still more than Canva’s 24 million paid users . But the truth is that many of those 37 million people probably don’t need it—they’re subscribed to Creative Cloud through their employer, who likely got a bulk rate on the software. Those people might be editing copy for print, or need to view PDFs, or edit the occasional image or video.

But let’s take a second to remember just how bad things used to be for entry-level designers. Around the time I graduated from college, a magazine review of the original Adobe Creative Suite put the price of the software at $1,229 (or $2,155 today), which was more than an entry level iBook ($1,099, or $1,927 today). Sure, there was a large educational discount for students like me, but there was a simple reason it cost so much: Because the number of designers was relatively small.

When I was 20, I remember the huge rub with design software: The stuff you needed to survive as a professional often costs more than a month of rent.

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Pretty big splash for a free product.

Canva’s bet: Normies outnumber power users by 6X (or more)

To explain what I mean: Let’s say you’re a company that subscribes to Adobe Creative Cloud. You might buy it for one department—like your video team, or your web team, or your print team. But there are a lot of other people in your office, and they need design too. They need to build social posts and presentations and email signatures and graphical work that your $150,000-per-year senior designer doesn’t have the time for.

Canva is well-suited for those smaller tasks, which is why they’ve convinced 24 million people to pay $120 per year or more for its offering, many in workplaces. Potentially, though, Canva Pro could be nearly as popular as Microsoft 365, which has an estimated 440 million paid subscribers. The pitch to employers: Rather than buying graphics software for one or two departments, everyone gets a Canva Pro subscription.

If only the market wasn’t so split because of all the professionals favoring Creative Cloud and looking down on Canva.

That’s where the make-Affinity-free logic comes into play. For years, Adobe’s Achilles heel has been its overwhelming high cost, which has left many early-career or freelance professional designers feeling sustained sticker shock, year after year. (The generative AI fumble, which still stings a year later, didn’t help.) On top of the fact that it was a huge burden on new businesses, it also discouraged interested designers from dipping their toes in, all because the margin needed to be protected at all costs.

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