CLIFTON, New Jersey — John Currie was blunt with the Democrats who rallied here over the weekend for their gubernatorial nominee, Mikie Sherrill. “Passaic County let me down in 2024,” the local Democratic Party chair told the room. The heavily Latino area was once a Democratic stronghold but flipped to Donald Trump last year, part of a broader shift away from Democrats among voters of color. “A lot of our people drank the Kool-Aid,” Currie lamented. Now, New Jersey’s high-profile governor’s race was a chance to regain their support.
“Have your grocery prices gone down?” Currie asked, reminding the crowd about Trump’s promise to lower costs.
“No!” the room shouted.
Tuesday’s election will test whether Republicans can hold on to Trump-led gains with voters of color — and how well Democrats can capitalize on what polls show is significant dissatisfaction with Trump’s second term. While strategists will be examining election returns from Virginia to California on Tuesday, the outcome in New Jersey — and especially Passaic County — is likely to receive extra scrutiny.
The results could offer clues about both parties’ standing heading into the 2026 midterms. The president is not on the ballot on Tuesday or next year, but Democrats hope to turn downballot races into a referendum on his administration.
Hector Lora, the politically independent mayor of Passaic whose parents emigrated from the Dominican Republic, did not endorse in the presidential race last year and declined to say how he voted. But this year he is vocally supporting Sherrill. He said she can work across the aisle but also “stand up to the administration” when necessary.
Voters thought Trump would “come in and force Washington to get the work done,” Lora said in an interview Sunday. “Right now what we see is a government shutdown and people who are not sure whether their benefits will continue, and divisiveness.” Many people in his area also believe Trump’s immigration crackdown has gone too far, he said.
Yet Republicans also have reasons for optimism. New Jersey moved toward Trump more than any state besides New York last fall, and minority voters were a big part of the story. GOP gubernatorial pick Jack Ciattarelli is courting voters of color and has kept the race unusually competitive, making the outcome in areas like Passaic County potentially decisive.
“What happened in 2024 was a lesson that a lot of voters who have been kind of under the spell of the Democratic machine … said we’re not doing this anymore,” said Chris Russell, a strategist for Ciattarelli. “That opens a big door for Republicans, and we made sure we barged through that door and are not waiting for those voters to come.”
All around Passaic County — an urban and suburban community not far from New York City — were reminders of the federal actions Democrats hope will provoke a backlash. A lapse in SNAP funding, triggered by a government shutdown, just stopped food stamps from going out. An ad from the Department of Homeland Security played on the radio, touting Trump’s mass deportation campaign to a community full of immigrants.
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