How much trouble is Labour in - and is the PM the right man for the job?

How much trouble is Labour in - and is the PM the right man for the job?

27 September 2025 Share Save Laura Kuenssberg Presenter, Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg Share Save

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Sir Keir Starmer achieved what many sage minds in Westminster believed was impossible. Labour smashed itself to bits in 2019. But Sir Keir put the party back together and swept back to power with an epic majority five years later. Yet, turn on the radio or glance at the headlines and Labour appears to be flirting with the unthinkable – giving him his P45. In the last few days I've spoken to 30 people across government and the party - ministers, MPs, advisers - to try to work out, as the prime minister makes his way to Labour's annual party conference in Liverpool, how much trouble is he really in? "How many more data points do you need to see that he is just not very good at being prime minister?" Unforgiving as that sounds, the Whitehall figure who posed that question is far from the only person who has seen Starmer's government up close to conclude that fundamentally, the prime minister is just not suited to many aspects of the job. For months polling has suggested the public feels the same. Sir Keir is an intelligent, incredibly diligent, serious-minded politician who has achieved extraordinary things. But time and again the same problems are raised, summed up brutally by another senior figure: "His judgement on people has proven to be flawed, see endless staffing resets." "His judgement on policy is flawed, hence U-turns, and he can't communicate, and has been unpopular in the public's eyes for a long time." Others point to a slow pace of decision making in Downing Street, suggesting the prime minister thinks "too like a chairman, not a chief executive," says another insider. And "he only gets to the right answer having exhausted all the other options," rather than moving fast using a gut political instinct. Another senior party figure says: "He doesn't think like a leader."

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Everyone in the Labour party is fed up with months of shocking polls. But others are fed up of colleagues complaining about the boss, whether the small number who do so in public, or the much higher number who do so in private. "It's like being England manager," one cabinet minister jokes. "Everyone thinks they can do a better job." You can hear the frustration in others' voices, highlighting the "outstanding job" Starmer has done on the world stage – wrangling President Donald Trump, or leading support for Ukraine. "He hasn't put a foot wrong," when it comes to foreign policy, says a cabinet minister. Another praises the "sensible changes" the prime minister has just made to Downing Street, saying "people now are now in jobs that will suit their abilities better" after the reshuffle, and promising the public will soon see the benefit. There can be no hiding from a very messy few weeks, with the forced exits of Angela Rayner and Lord Mandelson, and the circus around the Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham's not very hidden ambition. But there are other believers in what they see as Starmer's steady and relentless leadership, as one party source jokes: "There were a couple of weeks where we couldn't get of bed without accidentally tearing our own arms off." They predict "that could all go away if we have a decent couple of months". Perhaps. What even some of the prime minister's staunchest allies believe is that, he must explain more clearly, and vigorously, to the party - and to all of us - what the government is actually doing and why.

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Sir Keir himself admitted as much in the summer, saying: "We haven't always told our story as well as we should." So in the next few days, and live on the programme tomorrow, expect the prime minister to try hard to make a clearer pitch to the country. After a horrible few weeks, aides say the prime minister is in a "better place, clearer about the argument he wants to make". Announcements like the Hillsborough Law, the returns deal with France, and yesterday's confirmation that ministers will go ahead with digital ID cards will convey, No 10 hopes, a sense of momentum. And you can expect him to build on the argument he's been making about patriotism in politics, trying to reclaim some of the territory Reform UK have been trying to grab. There are two problems though. Firstly, even Starmer's biggest fans in government know fluid communication is not his strong point. He doesn't see the camera, or the TV sofa as his friend. A strong defender of Starmer tells me: "I wish he was better at telling a story, people don't understand how deeply he feels it and how passionate he is, but he personally isn't good at it." Secondly, and according to one senior MP this is the bigger issue: "We're just not clear about what we are doing or who we are for." Another staffer tells me: "There is no fire, no passion, no vision – we are timid and flat-footed." Even if the prime minister suddenly developed the silky charm and persuasiveness of George Clooney, or the bombastic nature of Piers Morgan, the question becomes, what is the story he wants to tell? Multiple exits from the No 10 communications team tell you that working this out is not an easy task.

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One source says: "Until we know the story we are trying to tell we will get buffeted around." Is reforming schools, hospitals or welfare at the top of the list? Building houses or becoming a green "superpower"? Or being at the forefront of technology, or protecting our borders, or growing the economy? Or is it now this priority of "patriotic renewal"? If you have that many priorities, how can the public understand what you care about most? To govern is to choose after all, if you're not doing much choosing, are you doing much governing? One source suggested frankly, even for those who work closely alongside him, it's often hard to work out what the prime minister thinks, telling me: "He often appears unknowable." "He compartmentalises his life - personal, professional, and political - in a way that works for him, but leaves colleagues unsure of his true views." In a sense it seems extraordinary that the leader of a political party can leave colleagues unsure of their views, after 14 months in office, and four years as leader in opposition. But his early years in charge were dominated by internal fights for control of the party, and over antisemitism, not over ideas. One source recalls: "We had lots of fights to win in opposition, but they were never, ever about what the parties' priorities should be."

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