To produce enough ‘critical metals’ such as copper, lithium and nickel to support the green-energy transition, the mining industry needs to boost operations two-to-fivefold worldwide by 20501. Geopolitical tensions, environmental damage and social conflicts will constrain this growth2. But another threat needs much more attention: climate change.
Extraction of the very metals needed to address global warming will be increasingly impeded by the extreme weather that accompanies climate change.
Thousands of critical-mineral mines are in sensitive environments, including deserts in Africa, highlands in the Andes and coastlines across the Asia-Pacific. Mining areas are already regularly exposed to hazards. In 2023 alone, wildfires forced Canadian mines to suspend operations, extreme rainfall flooded pits and cut off access roads in Australia, and ongoing drought in Chile threatened regional water supplies, mining operations and local communities3.
How the rush for critical minerals is neglecting human needs
The costs of such damage are growing as the planet warms. For example, over the past decade, excessive rainfall has led to losses of around Aus$3 billion (US$2 billion) for Australian copper mines (see Supplementary information). Under ‘business as usual’ production, without undertaking climate adaptation measures, the industry stands to lose Aus$7.5 billion as a result of heavy precipitation alone between now and 2050, equating to 50,000 tonnes of copper that could be used for energy-transition technologies.
The consequences of mining disruptions will spiral across the global economy. Constrained supplies will mean that the energy transition is slower than projected. Mining communities and ecosystems will come under increasing strain3. An energy transition that ignores these threats will risk deepening social divides, undermining community trust and jeopardizing long-term sustainability.
As the United Nations COP30 climate summit gets under way in Belém, Brazil, we call for more investment and planning to strengthen the resilience of critical-mineral supply chains. Steps include systematic reviews of climate hazard exposure, anticipation of future risks, and improved management of mining sites and their surroundings. Towards that end, we outline four key strategies.
Plug data gaps
To gauge risks, researchers first need to understand the mines themselves: where they are located, their scale and their landscapes, as well as production rates and physical inputs and outputs4. The details of how assets, such as dams for waste ‘tailings’, were built are also essential for assessing the risk of catastrophic failures5. Yet all these details are documented for fewer than half of mines, owing to under-reporting, the prevalence of small-scale operations and commercial or regulatory barriers that limit transparency or data standardization4. Mining companies need to generate and share data (covering production quantities, mineral by-products, resource inputs, supply chains and asset construction, for example) to help researchers to fill global data gaps.
The vulnerabilities of infrastructure networks to climate hazards need to be assessed. Mines rely on water, fuel, electricity, railways, smelters, processing facilities and ports. In Chile, for example, copper production competes with the needs of communities and the environment in terms of water supplies6. To map the environment, baseline information needs to be collected on biodiversity, catchment hydrology and long-term water-quality trends. But again, such data and modelling are scarce.
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