On the 19th September 2025 between 0958 and 1011hrs Russia carried out another, in a series of air incursions into Estonian airspace. They were technically minor infractions but the last one lasted almost 12 minutes, and in the context of tensions with NATO – largely created by Russia itself, it was just another dangerous move in the never ending game of Baltic chess.
Prior air incursions
This is why another similar move hasn’t happened, and why Russia will think twice before it does so again.
For decades the process of a NATO air interception has followed the usual procedure. In my lifetime I’ve witnessed or been made aware of hundreds, and even flown on one in the rear seat of a Tornado. It’s a thrilling experience, pulling up next to a Tu-22M (NATO: Tu-26 Backfire) in the south Norwegian Sea.
Ground or air based radars see the enemy coming, aircraft are scrambled and certainly in the Cold War era and until recently, the aircraft doing the intercepting would have been pinging their radars looking for the target. The NATO aircraft would arrive, escort the Russians out of their airspace or just sit next to them if they were in international space. The point was always to make it absolutely clear an interception would always happen. We would never back down from them and they always knew we would come.
At the same time the Russians would test the time to intercept and note which units had been sent to do the intercepting. It was how the game has always been played for the best part of 60 years.
Previous Estonia incursions had not been deterred and NATO command was well aware that the Russians were not convinced by playing the game the old fashioned way. It was not stopping them crossing into Estonian air space and they had the advantage on their side of a massive area of air space from which the could change direction at any time, conduct an incursion and leave – most likely before NATO aircraft could actually get to them. The Russians were using every opportunity to press home their local superiority and make sure NATO knew it.
Their preferred aircraft for these operations is not so much a fighter in the classic sense, but a long range interceptor, The Mig-31 Foxhound. It’s incredibly fast in a straight line at Mach 2.8 – leaving most western aircraft standing – has a combat radius of around 1,900 miles (3,060Km) and can be in and out of an incursion zone in a couple of minutes, at heights as far up as 82,000ft (25,000m).
The Mig-31 Foxhound Interceptor
NATO knew this. It also knew that the Russian command system is nowhere near as integrated as NATO’s and Mig-31 pilots refer to the Ground Assisted Control for instructions on almost everything. It was clear these incursions were ordered and deliberate. The time had come to change the rules of the game and show the Russians that whatever they thought those rules were, NATO had changed them. Russia was about to find out once and for all how dramatically and effectively things have moved on.
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