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Key Takeaways Many small businesses rely on a good holiday season to support them through the entire year, but this is a risky model.
The smarter alternative is to leverage the holiday season to grow your business throughout the year. This means using the holiday season to collect data.
Use loyalty apps, hold events to draw customers into your store, send newsletters, and ask customers for their email or phone number so you can request opt-ins.
The holiday sales projections are coming, and unfortunately, they’re not great.
An S&P Global Ratings report expects holiday sales (November-December) will grow 4% in 2025 from 2024, but thanks to weaker consumer confidence on the “uncertain macroeconomic outlook,” those researchers say it’ll be because of increased prices to make up for tariffs, not volume.
Consulting giant Deloitte is projecting that holiday retail sales will grow between 2.9% and 3.4% in 2025. But this is well below the 4.2% from last year’s growth and below the 10-year average of 5.2%. And the National Retail Federation admits that holiday sales will increase between 3.7% and 4.2% compared to last year. Unfortunately, their forecast is below the 4.3% growth achieved from 2023 to 2024.
Related: 5 Underrated Tips for Brands to Boost Holiday Sales
Many small businesses — particularly merchants — rely on a good holiday season to support them through the entire year. A recent Constant Contact study found that as much as 50% of a small company’s sales can come from between Thanksgiving and Christmas. But does it really have to be that way? I don’t think so.
Having your livelihood tied to just one season in the year is a risky model. If things don’t go right during the holidays, a small business owner could find themselves significantly challenged to show a profit for the year. Being so dependent on this time of year is a concern.
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