A sign at a NYS Department Of Labor job fair at the Downtown Central Library in Buffalo, New York, US, on Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2025. Lauren Petracca | Bloomberg | Getty Images
This is CNBC's Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox. Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:
1. Silver linings playbook
Yesterday highlighted the relevance of a market adage: Bad news can actually be good news for investors. After private payroll data showed weakness in the labor market, stocks climbed as investors hoped the report would strengthen the case for an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week. Here's what to know: The ADP reported a surprise decline of 32,000 jobs in November. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were forecasting a gain of 40,000.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Traders are now pricing in a roughly 89% likelihood of a rate cut, up from under 70% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Data released by Challenger, Gray & Christmas this morning also showed layoff announcements this year totaled the most since 2020, another sign of the labor market's slowdown.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC yesterday that the poor ADP numbers were due to the government shutdown and mass deportations — not tariffs.
Speaking of tariffs, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump administration can replicate the sweeping levies if the Supreme Court rules the president exceeded his authority to enact the duties.
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