The outlook for the DRAM market is looking grim, at least for PC enthusiasts; not so much for Micron, which announced record revenues in DRAM and NAND in its first earnings call since killing its Crucial consumer brand. In the call, where Micron detailed its financials for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, CEO, Chairman, and President Sanjay Mehrotra doubled down on what the rest of the memory industry has been saying – DRAM shortages will persist beyond 2026.
In the first fiscal quarter, Micron reported record revenue of $13.64 billion, up nearly 57% year-over-year, as well as "significant margin expansion.” Micron attributes this growth, as you can probably guess, to higher pricing and increased demand in AI data centers. That demand doesn’t appear to be slowing down. Mehrotra reiterated that Micron expects supply constraints to “persist beyond calendar 2026” and that the company is working on multi-year supply commitments.
HBM is also a major contributing factor. HBM requires three times as much wafer space as DDR5, and Micron expects “strong growth” in its HBM revenue. The company projects that the HBM TAM (Total Addressable Market) will hit $100 billion by 2028, outpacing the entire DRAM market in calendar 2024.
Despite closing shop on the Crucial brand, Micron continues to supply DRAM for PCs and phones, and the company expects PC shipments to continue to grow even with constrained supply. Even with revenue and manufacturing capacity expansion expected in the coming years, Micron said it’s “disappointed” that it can’t meet demand across all market segments.
That expansion in manufacturing capacity is rolling out now. Micron is working on two fabs in Idaho, with the first expected to start producing chips in mid-2027. Plans for a fab in New York are proceeding, as well. Micron says it expects to break ground in early 2026, with production starting somewhere around 2030.
Even with expansion, Micron anticipates it will only be able to meet “half to two-thirds” of demand from its “key customers.” Mehrotra says that Micron’s customers are “concerned about long-term access to memory,” with customers lining up for multi-year contracts in order to secure supply.
The DRAM shortage is continuing to cause a surge in DDR5 prices. Most suppliers agree that the shortage will continue into at least next year and likely beyond, but some suggest prices will level off soon. GPU vendor Sapphire says prices will stabilize in the next six to eight months, while Kingston suggests prices will "continue to go up” in the future.
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