The goal of the quantum-computing industry is to build a powerful, functional machine capable of solving large-scale problems in science and industry that classical computing can’t solve. We won’t get there in 2026. In fact, scientists have been working toward that goal since at least the 1980s, and it has proved difficult, to say the least.
“If someone says quantum computers are commercially useful today, I say I want to have what they’re having,” said Yuval Boger, chief commercial officer of the quantum-computing startup QuEra, on stage at the Q+AI conference in New York City in October.
Because the goal is so lofty, tracking its progress has also been difficult. To help chart a course toward truly transformative quantum technology and mark milestones along the path, the team at Microsoft Quantum has come up with a new framework.
This framework lays out three levels of quantum-computing progress. The first level includes the kinds of machines we have today: the so-called noisy, intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computers. These computers are made up of roughly 1,000 quantum bits, or qubits, but are noisy and error prone. The second level consists of small machines that implement one of many protocols that can robustly detect and correct qubit errors. The third and final level represents a large-scale version of those error-corrected machines, containing hundreds of thousands or even millions of qubits and capable of millions of quantum operations, with high fidelity.
If you accept this framework, 2026 is slated to be the year when customers can finally get their hands on level-two quantum computers. “We feel very excited about the year 2026, because lots of work that happened over the last so many years is coming to fruition now,” says Srinivas Prasad Sugasani, vice president of quantum at Microsoft.
Microsoft, in collaboration with the startup Atom Computing, plans to deliver an error-corrected quantum computer to the Export and Investment Fund of Denmark and the Novo Nordisk Foundation. “This machine should be utilized toward establishing a scientific advantage—not a commercial advantage yet, but that’s the path forward,” Sugasani says.
QuEra has also delivered a quantum machine ready for error correction to Japan’s National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), and plans to make it available to global customers in 2026.
The significance of error correction
Arguably, the main trouble with today’s quantum computers is their propensity for noise. Quantum bits are inherently fragile and thus sensitive to all kinds of environmental factors, such as electric or magnetic fields, mechanical vibrations, or even cosmic rays. Some have argued that even noisy quantum machines can be useful, but almost everyone agrees that for truly transformative applications, quantum computers will need to become error resilient.
To make classical information robust against errors, one can simply repeat it. Say you want to send a 0 bit along a noisy channel. That 0 might get flipped to a 1 along the way, causing a miscommunication. But if you instead send three zeros in a row, it will still be obvious that you were trying to send a 0 even if one gets flipped.
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