The software industry sits at a strange inflection point. AI coding has evolved from autocomplete on steroids to agents that can autonomously execute development tasks. The economic boom that fueled tech’s hiring spree has given way to an efficiency mandate: companies now often favor profitability over growth, experienced hires over fresh graduates, and smaller teams armed with better tools.
Meanwhile, a new generation of developers is entering the workforce with a different calculus: pragmatic about career stability, skeptical of hustle culture, and raised on AI assistance from day one.
What happens next is genuinely uncertain. Below are five critical questions that may shape software engineering through 2026, with two contrasting scenarios for each. These aren’t really predictions, but lenses for preparation. The goal is a clear roadmap for handling what comes next, grounded in current data and tempered by the healthy skepticism this community is known for.
1. The Junior developer question
The bottom line: Junior developer hiring could collapse as AI automates entry-level tasks, or rebound as software spreads into every industry. Both futures require different survival strategies.
The traditional pathway of “learn to code, get junior job, grow into senior” is wobbling. A Harvard study of 62 million workers found that when companies adopt generative AI, junior developer employment drops by about 9-10% within six quarters, while senior employment barely budges. Big tech hired 50% fewer fresh graduates over the past three years. As one engineer cynically put it: ~”Why hire a junior for $90K when an AI coding agent costs less?”
This isn’t just AI. Macro factors like rising interest rates and post-pandemic corrections hit around 2022, before AI tools became widespread. But AI has accelerated the trend. A single senior engineer with AI assistance can now produce what used to require a small team. Companies are quietly not hiring juniors more than they’re firing anyone.
The flip scenario: AI unlocks massive demand for developers across every industry, not just tech. Healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing, and finance all start embedding software and automation. Rather than replacing developers, AI becomes a force multiplier that spreads development work into domains that never employed coders. We’d see more entry-level roles, just different ones: “AI-native” developers who quickly build automations and integrations for specific niches.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics still projects ~15% growth in software jobs from 2024 to 2034. If businesses use AI to expand output rather than strictly cut headcount, they’ll need humans to seize the opportunities AI creates.
The long-term risk of the pessimistic scenario is often overlooked: today’s juniors are tomorrow’s senior engineers and tech leaders. Cut off the talent pipeline entirely and you create a leadership vacuum in 5-10 years. Industry veterans call this the “slow decay”: an ecosystem that stops training its replacements.
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