Elon Musk, the richest man on Earth, is very good at making money. His track record of predicting the future is less stellar.
Through the years, Musk has made several outlandish forecasts—about self-driving cars, about space exploration, about brain chips, about robotics—that have not panned out. The Tesla CEO and former steward of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency seems at least a bit self-aware. During a surprise appearance and his debut at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday, he concluded with something like a mission statement: “Generally, for quality of life, it’s better to err on the side of being an optimist and wrong than a pessimist and right.”
Still, when one’s companies have their hands in so many industries—autos and robotics (Tesla), space travel and telecommunications (SpaceX), social media (X), artificial intelligence (xAI), infrastructure (the Boring Company), and neurotechnology (Neuralink)—even off-the-cuff predictions can move global markets. Here are a few prognostications Musk made on Thursday:
Aliens Don’t Exist (Probably)
Elon Musk opened his Davos remarks—a conversation with friend and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink—with a discussion of his values, and a few jokes about aliens. “We have 9,000 satellites up there and not once have we had to maneuver around an alien spaceship,” Musk said. “We need to assume that life and consciousness are extremely rare and it might only be us.”
Humanoid Robots Will Transform Human Life—and Go on Sale in 2027
Musk started making promises about Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot, in 2021. Most recently, he said Tesla—now rebranded as a robotics and autonomy company—would make thousands of Optimus robots in 2025. But the company is reportedly still struggling to get Optimus’ hand to work. That did not stop Musk repeating in Davos some of his most far-reaching claims about the way the product would change human life forever.
“If we have ubiquitous AI that is essentially free, or close to it, and ubiquitous robotics, you will have an explosion, an expansion of the global economy that is truly beyond all precedent,” Musk said. What does that mean for you? Billions of robots powered by artificial intelligence will outnumber humans and “saturate all human needs,” he said. “You won’t be able to think of something to ask the robot for at a certain point, there will be such an abundance of goods and services.”
But first, of course, Tesla will have to start selling Optimus, which Musk said would happen late next year.
Robotaxis Will Be “Very Widespread” in the US by 2027
... continue reading