A large chunk of the United States is set to face a massive winter storm this weekend. In the lead up to that, many people have turned to the Weather app on their iPhone for forecasts.
The problem? The forecasts are often outlandish and inconsistent. Here’s why.
Why Apple Weather is wrong
When a meteorologist crafts a forecast, they pull data from multiple weather models, most of which update several times a day, as well as guidance from the National Weather Service.
Meteorologists also wait to put together a specific forecast with snowfall predictions until closer to the actual event. A lot can change between when the first signs of a weather event show up on early models and the actual system moving through.
A good meteorologist also refrains from posting raw data from models on social media as doing so often causes panic.
Apple Weather, meanwhile, will gladly show you a “forecast” with snow totals up to 10 days in advance. The problem is that weather models don’t have a grasp on the specifics of a system that far in advance, and Apple Weather lacks that nuance.
This is where things get messy and you see pictures on social media of Apple Weather predicting over 30 inches of snow for cities on the east coast.
A report from The New York Times today highlights how this is because Apple Weather doesn’t take into account all the necessary information when showing these numbers:
Many weather apps show the results from a single forecast model, instead of the many that meteorologists will draw from in preparing their reports. The app pulls raw data and delivers it to the palm of your hand, but often without context that allows for the other possibilities. Sometimes, that ends up being the right one, and sometimes not.
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