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I learned the cost of waiting for certainty early in my investing career. A friend introduced me to a micro trading app. There was no revenue and no meaningful user base, and the valuation seemed disconnected from the company’s current standing. I wanted more proof. I wanted stronger signals and cleaner data. I convinced myself that a better picture was coming if I held off.
The company became Robinhood.
That decision stayed with me. It showed how expensive hesitation can be and how misleading the idea of “complete clarity” really is. Early-stage work rarely offers perfect information. The moment you want the most certainty is usually the moment you have the least. Markets move, customers shift and the information you wait for often doesn’t show up until long after the opportunity has passed.
This is why progress slows when leaders treat uncertainty as a reason to pause. The companies that move fastest tend to be led by people who understand that clarity forms through action over analysis. Instead of waiting for the complete picture, they move when they reach a workable level of conviction. That is the foundation of One Sigma Confidence.
What One Sigma Confidence actually means
The name borrows from basic statistics, but the rule itself is simple. When you feel roughly 70% confident in a direction, it is time to act. Not with bravado, and not with unquestioning optimism. With grounded conviction that acknowledges what you know, what you believe, and what remains uncertain.
This mindset is effective because it acknowledges the realities of early-stage work. Very few decisions come with a complete data set. High-growth environments reward forward movement over intellectual perfectionism. One Sigma Confidence gives you the structure to make timely decisions without drifting into recklessness.
The cost of over-analysis
Over-analysis masquerades as discipline, yet it often reflects fear. Founders delay product launches while they wait for perfect customer feedback. Investors request more proof even after the core questions have been answered. Team members hold off on key decisions because they want someone to guarantee the outcome.
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