After writing two November stories analyzing price expectations for Valve’s upcoming Steam Machine, I really didn’t think we’d be offering more informed speculation before the official price was revealed. Then Valve wrote a blog post this week noting that the “growing price of… critical components” like RAM and storage meant that “we must revisit our exact shipping schedule and pricing” for the living room-focused PC gaming box.
We don’t know exactly what form that “revisiting” will take at the moment. Analysts who spoke to Ars were somewhat divided on how much of its quickly increasing component costs Valve would be willing (or forced) to pass on to consumers.
“We knew the component issue was bad,” DFC Intelligence analyst David Cole told Ars. “It has just gotten worse. “
Starting at $599 to $1,000?
How much worse has the pricing situation gotten for Valve since November? Superdata Research founder and SuperJoost newsletter author Joost van Dreunen suggested that the 512GB Steam Machine model would probably run $50 to $75 more than he expected when the Steam Machine was announced, and to expect a price “potentially $100+ above target” for the high-end 2TB model. That would mean a $599 to $629 price at the low-end and $849 to $899 for the high-end model, in his estimation.
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter agreed that, even with the additional component costs, Valve would likely “try to get it out at $599 or so for the 512GB version,” A starting price higher than that would mean “abysmal” sales, he added. “I think $700 is a death sentence and $1,000 is unsellable.”
It costs a lot to look this good. It costs a lot to look this good.
Other analysts think that Pachter’s “unsellable” price for the Steam Machine is increasingly plausible now, though. DFC’s Cole said possible prices for the Steam Machine are now “approaching $1,000,” with the 512GB model perhaps $100 less than 2TB model. But F-Squared analyst Michael Futter expected an even bigger gap between the two models, saying the 512GB model “could crest $1,000” and the 2TB model would likely fall somewhere in the $1,300 to $1,500 range.