No one will supplant American and Chinese dominance in the space launch arena anytime soon, but several longtime US allies now see sovereign access to space as a national security imperative.
Taking advantage of private launch initiatives already underway within their own borders, several middle and regional powers have approved substantial government funding for commercial startups to help them reach the launch pad. Australia, Canada, Germany, and Spain are among the nations that currently lack the ability to independently put their own satellites into orbit but which are now spending money to establish a domestic launch industry. Others talk a big game but haven’t committed the cash to back up their ambitions.
The moves are part of a wider trend among US allies to increase defense spending amid strained relations with the Trump administration. Tariffs, trade wars, and threats to invade the territory of a NATO ally have changed the tune of many foreign leaders. In Europe, there’s even talk of fielding a nuclear deterrent independent of the nuclear umbrella provided by the US military.
Trump’s relationship with Elon Musk, the head of the world’s leading space launch company, has further soured foreign appetite for using the United States for launch services. Today, that usually means choosing to pay Musk’s SpaceX.
Commercial satellite companies will still choose the cheapest, most reliable path to space, of course. This means SpaceX will win the overwhelming majority of commercial launch contracts put up for global competition. But there’s a captive market for many satellite projects, especially those with government backing. US government satellites typically launch on US rockets, just as Chinese satellites fly on Chinese rockets.
The picture is more opaque in Europe. The European Space Agency and the European Union prefer to launch their satellites on European rockets, but that’s not always possible. ESA and the EU launched several key satellite missions on SpaceX rockets while waiting on the debut of Europe’s long-delayed Ariane 6 rocket. The Ariane 6 is now launching reliably, ending Europe’s reliance on SpaceX.