Flash floods have wrought more havoc in the US this week, from the Northeast to the Midwest, just weeks after swollen rivers took more than 130 lives across central Texas earlier this month. Frustrations have grown in the aftermath of that catastrophe over why more wasn’t done to warn people in advance.
Local officials face mounting questions over whether they sent too many or sent too few mobile phone alerts to people. Some Texans have accused the state of sending out too many alerts for injured police officers in the months leading up to the floods, which may have led to residents opting out of receiving warnings. And hard-hit Kerr County, where more than 100 people died, lacked sirens along riverbanks to warn people of rising waters.
These are all important questions to answer that can help keep history from repeating itself in another disaster. Failing to translate flood forecasts into timely messages that tell people what they need to do to stay safe can have tragic consequences. In Texas and elsewhere, the solution is more wide-ranging than fixing any single channel of communication. The Verge spoke with experts about what it would take to design an ideal disaster warning system.
The solution is more wide-ranging than fixing any single channel of communication
When you have a matter of hours or maybe even minutes to send a lifesaving message, you need to use every tool at your disposal. That communication needs to start long before the storm rolls in, and involves everyone from forecasters to disaster managers and local officials. Even community members will need to reach out to each other when no one else may be able to get to them.
The last mile
By definition, flash floods are difficult to forecast with specificity or much lead time. But forecasts are only one part of the process. There are more hurdles when it comes to getting those forecasts out to people, an issue experts describe as getting past “the last mile.” Doing so starts with a shift in thinking from “‘what will the weather be’ to ‘what will the weather do,’” explains Olufemi Osidele, CEO of Hydrologic Research Center (HRC), which oversees a global flash flood guidance program. The technical term is “impact-based forecasting,” and the goal is to relay messages that help people understand what actions to take to keep themselves safe.
In the hours leading up to devastating floods in central Texas, the National Weather Service sent out escalating alerts about the growing risk of flash floods. But not everyone received alerts on their phones with safety instructions from Kerr County officials during crucial hours, according to records obtained by NBC News. While meteorologists can say there’s a life-threatening storm approaching, it typically falls to local authorities to determine what guidance to give to specific communities on how and when to evacuate or take shelter.
“Emergency responders need to know what are the appropriate actions to take or what’s needed in the case of a flash flood before an event happens so that they can react quickly, because the time to respond to that event is likely very short,” says Theresa Modrick Hansen, chief operating officer at HRC. “Time is really the critical issue for disaster managers.”
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