OpenAI CEO Sam Altman just admitted to what the rest of the AI industry won't: that the entire thing could be a big, fat bubble, ready to burst.
Though it's a fiercely debated topic — with many experts saying the writing's on the wall — the OpenAI CEO was unwavering in his conviction.
"When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth," Altman told a small group of reporters on Thursday, as quoted by The Verge. "Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes."
It's a striking admission to make for Altman, whose company is eyeing an astronomical $500 billion valuation. OpenAI has received tens of billions of dollars in investment from Microsoft, Softbank, and Nvidia. And as a flag-bearer of the industry with its mega-popular chatbot ChatGPT, it's under immense pressure to demonstrate a profitable business model.
Is Altman speaking out of turn, or is he trying to get ahead of what feels like an inevitable decline for the industry?
To support his claims, Altman drew on a recent example: the dot-com bubble in the 90s.
"If you look at most of the bubbles in history, like the tech bubble, there was a real thing," Altman elaborated, per The Verge. "Tech was really important. The internet was a really big deal. People got overexcited."
The dot-com bubble in many ways parallels the fervor surrounding AI. During this period, companies rushed to build telecom infrastructure while investors poured loads of money into internet-based businesses — only for it to pop when it became apparent that these companies couldn't generate profit.
Today, you could swap telecom infrastructure with "data centers" and internet companies with "AI startups" and argue much the same thing.
Some of Altman's other comments suggest that the reason he's comfortable with acknowledging a bubble on the horizon is that he believes OpenAI will survive it — if not come out stronger. Amazon, for example, weathered the dot-com implosion and became one of the biggest companies in the world.
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