Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market

Pope Gregory XIV, who tried to ban gambling on the papacy Like many people, I’ve been sad to hear about Pope Francis' illness and wish him a speedy recovery. As I read the latest updates, I had an intrusive thought: is there already a prediction market on his health? I’m sorry to report that yes there is. The phenomenon of a “New Pope in 2025?” market isn’t new; until 1918, gambling on papal deaths and elections was punishable by excommunication. The 500-year-old story behind it is an illustration of how prediction markets influence narratives, behavior, and the perception of institutions — and why it might not be healthy that there’s already real money riding on the Pope’s recovery. Renaissance Rome was a different place It’s strange to think about in 2025, but in the 1500s the Pope ruled one of the most powerful countries in Italy. Covering much of the central Italian peninsula, the Papal States were a theocracy with the Pope as absolute ruler. Italian politics in this era were f ... Read full article.