The Next iPad Needs an iPhone 16E Moment. But Will Its Cost Go Up, Too?

Apple gave us a February surprise this year, launching a new entry-level iPhone ahead of schedule. The iPhone 16E is full of most of the things people want in an iPhone, plus hosts many features of the iPhone 16. But, while it's entry-level, it's not low-cost. As I wait for a new iPad to replace Apple's 10th-gen iPad base model, likely coming in the next month or so, I'm encouraged and concerned that Apple will follow a similar path as the 16E. Actually, it seems inevitable. But maybe I'm wrong. The 10th-gen iPad, released all the way back in 2022, finally introduced most of the features of the more expensive iPads: slimmer bezels around the display, better cameras and a new way to connect keyboards. But it came with a price increase. The 10th-gen iPad cuts some corners, but it's the best value iPad pick. At the time, however, it was a shift away from what had been a tradition of $300-range entry iPads. Apple addressed this by dropping the 10th-gen iPad price back down to $350 -- a year and a half later. But maybe the iPhone's price bump isn't an indicator of an iPad price bump. There's even a chance Apple's new C1 modem could lead to a lower-cost cellular option. "The iPhone 16E, in my opinion, is a different phone than the SE, so the price bump does not mean other products will follow," said Carolina Milanesi, president and principal analyst for Creative Strategies. "It might be actually interesting to see if the iPad with cellular gets the C1 or derivative and it costs less than the $100 difference we have seen historically." The 11th-gen iPad, or whatever it's called, already has a clear template laid out. Look at the iPad Mini released last fall, or the latest iPhone 16E. Apple Intelligence, a collection of scattershot AI features across Apple's software, is clearly a cut-off moment for where old processors miss the mark and new ones can get cut into future AI features in OS updates to come. The rest of Apple's iPad lineup can run Apple Intelligence, but not the entry-level 10th-gen iPad. Expect that to be a centerpiece of the change. The iPad Mini also worked with newer Apple Pencils, a move Apple might (and should) finally adopt for the entry iPad. The Pencil Pro has a lot of great extras, although that "pro" marketing could mean the entry iPad still gets left out. The iPhone 16E also adds another wrinkle I'd love to see on iPads: a new C1 modem that could be more power-efficient. The iPhone 16E has better battery life than the iPhone 16. Maybe an iPad 11th-gen model with optional C1 cellular could have better battery life, too. The iPad Mini's update last year is likely a sign of what to expect from the next entry iPad: improved processor, maybe better Pencil support. Scott Stein/CNET But at what cost? The iPhone 16E bumped its price beyond what previous iPhone SE models cost, starting at $599 instead of $429 when the SE was introduced in 2022. The best part of entry-level iPads is their relatively long product lifespans and cost. They're kid and family iPads: useful to have and not too wildly expensive to replace. What happens if the entry iPad shifts up to a $500-plus range? In this economy, and two-plus years after the 10th-gen iPad, it wouldn't be a surprise. But I wouldn't be happy about it. It also raises deeper questions about what makes an entry-level iPad different than the midrange iPad Air. Reports suggest Apple could update both product lines this spring, and I wonder if the differences -- and price range -- will become too subtle to make sense. Could Apple just fuse the Air and base iPad into one product? It already feels like there are one too many iPad models to keep track of. Then again, Apple seems fine right now selling an iPhone 16E at $599 and a slightly fuller-featured iPhone 16 for just $200 more. Incrementalism rules the Apple product lineup. It's the possibly higher starting point that's the concern. Climbing above $500 feels like the point at which an iPad is no longer affordable for many, although the first iPad was $500 at its start. Then again, more expensive new iPads would also drive people to bargain shop for older models, which are often floating around on sale. When I reviewed the iPad Mini last fall, I said its features were exactly what I wanted on a new entry-level iPad. The price, however, wasn't something I was wild about. I expect these exact feelings to return when the next iPads are announced. And I expect whatever that entry-level iPad turns out to be will make it the best iPad option to get for most people. But be prepared for a price bump, based on everything we're seeing with Apple's iPhone strategy. And if that happens, will we be OK with it?