IDC: Global smartphone shipments to fall record 16.7% in 2026 as memory costs surge

IDC's August 2026 forecast predicts worldwide smartphone shipments will drop 16.7% this year, a steeper decline than the 13.9% estimate from May. The cause is a severe shortage of NAND and DRAM chips, with component costs up over 300% year-over-year as manufacturers redirect capacity to AI data centers. As a result, average smartphone selling prices have jumped 27.6% to $581, effectively pushing sub-$100 Android phones out of the market.