From Renew Economy
The recent rise of “generative AI” models has led to a lot of dire predictions about the associated requirements for energy. It has been estimated that AI will consume anything from 9 to 25 per cent of all US electricity by 2032.
But we have been here before. Predictions of this kind have been made ever since the emergence of the Internet as a central part of modern life, often tied to claims and counterclaims about the transition to renewable energy.
Back in 1999 let alone AI, Forbes magazine ran a piece headlined, Dig more coal — the PCs are coming. This article claimed that personal computers would use 50 per cent of US electricity within a decade. The unsubtle implication was that any attempt to reduce carbon dioxide emissions was doomed to failure
Of course, this prediction wasn’t borne out. Computing power has increased a thousand-fold since the turn of the century. But far from demanding more electricity personal computers have become more efficient with laptops mostly replacing large standalone boxes, and software improvements reducing waste.
A typical modern computer consumes around 30-60 watts when it is operating, less than a bar fridge or an incandescent light bulb.
The rise of large data centres and cloud computing produced another round of alarm. A US EPA report in 2007 predicted a doubling of demand every five years. Again, this number fed into a range of debates about renewable energy and climate change.
Yet throughout this period, the actual share of electricity use accounted for by the IT sector has hovered between 1 and 2 per cent, accounting for less than 1 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. By contrast, the unglamorous and largely disregarded business of making cement accounts for around 7 per cent of global emissions.
Will generative AI change this pattern? Not for quite a while. Although most business organizations now use AI for some purposes, it typically accounts for only 5 to 10 per cent of IT budgets.
Even if that share doubled or tripled the impact would be barely noticeable. Looking the other side of the market, OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, is bringing in around $3 billion a year in sales revenue, and has spent around $7 billion developing its model. Even if every penny of that was spent on electricity, the effect would be little more than a blip.
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