Inveterate overpromiser Elon Musk is teasing that his chatbot Grok could soon “achieve artificial general intelligence,” or AGI — a hypothetical form of AI system that surpasses humans in virtually every way, and remains the white whale of the AI industry.
“My estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10 percent and rising,” Musk wrote on his website X, formerly Twitter, on Saturday.
Like a good courtier, an employee at Musk’s AI firm xAI was there to boost Musk’s claim within the hour.
“I trust this forecast of probability,” tweeted the employee Aditya Gupta. (This is the same worker who a few months ago was publicly chewed out by his boss for using the word “researcher” instead of “engineer.” At the time, Gupta issued a sheepish correction.)
And thus began a sycophant game of telephone. Musk, in response to someone praising his own prediction, interpreted that as a sign to double down on it — while at the same time hedging his bets, somehow.
“Grok 5 will be AGI or something indistinguishable from AGI,” an emboldened Musk proclaimed.
Musk made a similar bet in 2024, predicting AGI would come “within two years.” He also teased last month that Grok 5 “has a chance” of reaching AGI. But is it a ten percent chance? Or is it something that “will,” as in absolutely, happen, per his latest tweet?
Raising pedantic quibbles like these will make Musk very mad at you, apparently. Because that’s what exactly OpenAI research scientist Gabriel Petersson did.
“10 percent chance Elon declares he reached AGI a fourth time,” Petersson, who works on the company’s video generating AI Sora, joked. “It’s no longer first to AGI, it’s first to 10 AGIs.”
Musk fumed in the replies, reaching back to his strange bugbear about “researchers” versus “engineers” that had previously caused him to rage at Gupta. “You call yourself a ‘researcher,'” he wrote. “Pathetic.”
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