It's not great news, but don't panic: Astronomers spotted an asteroid that has a roughly 3.1% chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. Space agencies are monitoring the newly discovered asteroid and still learning more about its size and path, so don't mark your calendar for doomsday just yet.
Although the odds of the asteroid hitting Earth have increased recently, that number is not set in stone. There's still a lot to learn about the space rock.
Designated 2024 YR4, the asteroid was first reported by the Minor Planet Center on Dec. 27. The MPC, part of the International Astronomical Union, maintains an official catalog of near-Earth objects like asteroids and comets. It reports, names and numbers new discoveries. Multiple observatories spotted the asteroid.
The European Space Agency placed 2024 YR4 at the top of its asteroid risk list. Similarly, the space rock now has the top spot on NASA's Sentry risk list. The Sentry list contains all known near-Earth asteroids with a nonzero probability of striking Earth.
Rating asteroids and their impact hazards
Enlarge Image The Torino Impact Hazard Scale rates potential asteroid and comet impacts. The newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 sits in the middle of the yellow zone with a 3 rating. White is no hazard; red is the most hazardous. NASA
The asteroid is rated a 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a tool used for categorizing potential impacts. That means 2024 YR4 merits attention from astronomers, the public and public officials, since a possible strike is less than a decade away.
"An object that reaches this level is not uncommon; there have been several objects in the past that have reached this same rating and eventually dropped off as more data have come in," NASA said in a statement on Jan. 29.
The highest level on the Torino Scale is a 10, which indicates a certain collision capable of catastrophic damage on a global level.
Current data shows 2024 YR4 is the only known large asteroid with an impact probability above 1%. The asteroid's numbers have been inching up. It started at a roughly 1% impact probability, then NASA revised that to 2.3% on Feb. 7. Now, the Sentry entry for 2024 YR4 shows 3.1%.
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