The orbital fits come straight from JPL SBDB elements, and all analysis was done through a custom MCMC pipeline built in Python (NumPy, SciPy, pandas, matplotlib) with covariance propagation, BIC model comparison, and Monte Carlo resampling.
I reran the orbital fits with the same MCMC pipeline and priors used for 1I and 2I.
Data source: JPL SBDB orbital elements (solution updated 2025-11-05).
Weighting, covariance propagation, and observational window unchanged.
No manual tuning between runs. Geometry and component behavior for 3I remain consistent; the alignment is persistent, not numerical.
3I rolling NGA:
Radial component climbs gradually through perihelion, peaks near 3 × 10⁻⁷ au·d⁻², then holds a long shoulder and steady instead of impulsive.
Transverse tracks at roughly 40–50 % of the radial amplitude, slightly lagged.
Normal remains statistically consistent with zero (σ ≈ 2 × 10⁻⁸ au·d⁻²).
So the acceleration stays in-plane the whole way, no measurable out-of-plane term.
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