Apple’s iPhone 18 launch is increasingly looking like a big departure from the company’s typical pattern. Today an IDC report has corroborated that the smallest flagship iPhone lineup since 2019 could be coming. Here are the details.
Smaller iPhone 18 lineup next fall expected by IDC, others
Today IDC published its 2025 smartphone sales forecast, including a preview of what 2026 could bring.
It’s overall a great report for Apple, as it shows strong iPhone 17 sales creating overall YoY growth of 6.1%.
Next year, however, IDC is expecting a 4.2% decline for iPhones.
Why the “negative” forecast? Because of Apple’s expected plan for an overhauled iPhone 18 launch strategy.
Per the report:
While the near-term forecast for smartphones has strengthened, 2026 growth has been revised downward from 1.2% growth to 0.9% decline, due to a combination of component shortages and product cycle adjustments. Apple’s strategic shift of its next base iPhone model from fall 2026 to early 2027 is forecast to pull-down iOS shipments by 4.2% next year.
We’ve been hearing for over half a year now that Apple plans to shift the base iPhone 18 out of the flagship fall lineup. It will instead launch in early 2027 alongside the iPhone 18e.
However, until recently, it was expected that there would still be four new iPhones next fall: iPhone Air 2, iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and iPhone Fold.
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