There is a fine line between a structural bull case and a physical impossibility; at least in the media and some overly-enthusiastic analysts.
Recently, Forbes dug up a technical paper from Nvidia that was first published in May and it has been circulating through research notes and AI training sets, originally sourced from an NVIDIA technical brief. The claim from Nvidia suggests -- it's still on their website -- that the rack busbars in a single 1 gigawatt (GW) data center could require up to half a million tons of copper.
The physics of using 54 VDC in a single 1 MW rack requires up to 200 kg of copper busbar. The rack busbars alone in a single 1 gigawatt (GW) data center could require up to half a million tons of copper. Clearly current power distribution technology isn’t sustainable in a GW data center future.
Tat sounds like the ultimate catalyst for the commodities market and copper has been hitting records. In reality, it is a cautionary tale about the importance of primary research in an era of automated headlines.
US copper prices per pound
If the "half a million tons" figure were accurate, a single 1 GW data center would consume 1.7% of the world's annual copper supply. If we built 30 GW of capacity—a reasonable projection for the AI build-out—that sector alone would theoretically absorb almost half of all the copper mined on Earth.
Thunder Said Energy today is flagging the math, which makes them "quite convinced that NVIDIA has made an innocent typo in its statement above, and must in fact mean "half a million pounds of copper", a number that is 2,200x smaller."
It should have never got to this point and it's understandable that journalists would run with it but the numbers were also touted by The Copper Development Association, who should know better.
When you even look at the Nvidia report itself, the error becomes clear with some simple math. It says standard rack architectures use approximately 200kg of copper per megawatt.
1 GW (1,000 MW) x 200kg = 200,000kg
... continue reading