The Andreessen Framework, Updated
In June 2007, Marc Andreessen published what became the defining essay on startup strategy. “The Only Thing That Matters” argued that of the three elements of a startup—team, product, and market—market matters most. A great market pulls the product out of the startup. The product doesn’t need to be great; it just has to basically work.
Andreessen’s insight has guided a generation of founders. But nineteen years later, something has changed. A new variable has entered the equation. One that determines whether the market can pull anything at all.
That variable is the model.
For AI startups, there is a prerequisite layer beneath product-market fit: the degree to which current model capabilities can satisfy what a market demands.
I call it Model-Market Fit, or MMF.
When MMF exists, Andreessen’s framework applies perfectly. The market pulls the product out. When it doesn’t, no amount of brilliant UX, go-to-market strategy, or engineering can make customers adopt a product whose core AI task doesn’t solve their job to be done.
When MMF Unlocks, Markets Explode
The pattern is unmistakable once you see it. A model crosses a capability threshold. Within months, a vertical that had been dormant for years suddenly explodes with activity.
Legal AI: GPT-4 (March 2023)
... continue reading