Ryan Haines / Android Authority
TL;DR Global smartphone chipset shipments are expected to fall 7% in 2026, but industry revenue is still set to grow in double digits.
AI-driven data center demand is pushing chipmakers toward high-margin HBM, driving up DRAM prices and squeezing phone makers.
Budget phones under $150 are taking the biggest hit as rising costs make low-end devices harder to sustain.
The smartphone industry is facing a paradox. Counterpoint Research reports that global smartphone chipset shipments will drop by 7% in 2026. Normally, fewer shipments would mean trouble for the industry, but this time, manufacturers are still expected to see double-digit revenue growth.
So, why are shipments dropping? Part of the reason is the growing demand from data centers. As AI becomes more common, chipmakers are shifting their resources to produce high-margin HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) for large server farms. This shift has caused DRAM prices to rise sharply, making it harder for manufacturers to create affordable phones without taking a loss.
The biggest impact will be on phones under $150, which will be hit hardest by rising costs, according to the report. As a result, companies are putting more effort into high-end models where profits are higher. At the same time, the industry is moving from 3nm to 2nm process nodes. Samsung has already fired the first shot with its Exynos 2600, which stands as the world’s first 2nm GAA chipset, and other companies like Apple and Qualcomm are following to stay competitive.
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Despite these changes, MediaTek remains the top player. Many people with budget and mid-range phones recognize the brand, and it is expected to hold a strong 34% market share in 2026, Counterpoint Research says. This is only a slight drop from 34.4% in 2025, but it keeps MediaTek ahead of the competition.
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