Over the first quarter of the 21st century, two major trends have transformed the global space industry.
The first is the rapid rise of China’s space program, which only flew its first human to orbit in 2003 but now boasts spaceflight capabilities second only to the United States. The second trend is the rise of the commercial space sector, first in the United States and led by SpaceX, but now spreading across much of the planet.
Both of these trends have had profound impacts on both civil and military space enterprises in the United States.
Big implications for NASA and military space
For NASA, the rise of China has meant the emergence of a true competitor, not only when it comes to returning humans to the Moon but also in sending robotic probes out into the Solar System. China may attempt a mission to return rock and soil samples from Mars later this decade, years before NASA will do so.
With regard to commercial space, NASA can justifiably claim credit for spurring much of the rise of these new space companies (and corresponding decline in traditional space). But the aging space agency now must grapple with the fact that private companies have become better at building rockets and satellites and are increasingly luring away some of NASA’s best engineers with higher-paying jobs. NASA must adapt to remain relevant.
As space has become more contested in a military sense, with both Russia and China as adversaries, the United States created the Space Force in 2019 to protect American assets in orbit. The US military, too, is grappling with the rise of commercial space by modernizing its procurement processes, but in many cases, it has struggled to keep up with the changing landscape.
The bottom line is that the space industry is undergoing profound change.
This broader change, however, is just the backdrop to a highly disruptive political environment in the United States right now, said Greg Autry, associate provost for Space Commercialization and Strategy at the University of Central Florida. He noted the recent fight between the White House Office of Management and Budget and the US Congress over NASA’s budget, as well as the military’s chief of Space Operations, Chance Saltzman, calling for “drastic change” in how the Space Force operates.