Earlier this year, an anonymous bettor on Polymarket perfectly predicted the US invasion of Venezuela mere hours before over 150 US aircraft rocked the country’s capital of Caracas, netting them over $400,000.
The incident reignited a heated debate over insider trading on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. While the act is strictly forbidden on Wall Street, prediction markets are currently operating in a regulatory vacuum, allowing those who enjoy insider status to score big — while everyone else is left to pick up the bill.
And the evidence that prediction markets are rife with insider traders continues to grow. As one eagle-eyed Reddit user noticed, an anonymous day-old Polymarket account correctly guessed 17 out of around 20 bets about Sunday’s Super Bowl half-time show.
Statistically speaking, that’s an exceedingly unlikely success rate, strongly suggesting the account had some kind of insider knowledge of what would happen during Puerto Rican superstar Bad Bunny’s performance.
The account correctly predicted that popstars Lady Gaga, Cardi B, and Ricky Martin would perform at the show. The account also correctly predicted that rappers Travis Scott and Drake, as well as singer Post Malone, would not perform.
The anonymous user placed bets starting February 6, two days before the event took place. All told, they made about $17,000 in profit.
“If you bet, you’re a rube for these people,” one Reddit user commented. “Literally spending money to give it over to insiders and cheats.”
Polymarket has yet to publicly comment on the matter and didn’t respond to the Wall Street Journal‘s request for comment.
Ironically, gambling was a major focus during Sunday’s sporting event. Companies spent untold sums to air commercials for betting services like DraftKings.
Trading volumes on prediction markets hit record highs during the Super Bowl, with Kalshi reporting over half a billion dollars in trading tied to the final outcome of the game. Polymarket’s equivalent bet saw trading volumes hit over $55 million.
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