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Key Takeaways The assumption that state-backed pensions are permanent and guaranteed is increasingly fragile. They depend on demographics, economics and political choices, all of which are changing.
It’s now reasonable to rethink retirement planning and question whether the pension system will exist in its current form by the time we reach retirement age.
Long-term financial security can be built by owning income streams that function like a pension: assets designed around unavoidable forces and predictable demand.
State-backed pensions are a relatively recent invention. Over time, pensions became normalized, and entire generations grew up assuming they were permanent and guaranteed. That assumption is now increasingly fragile.
According to Congruent Solutions, by 2050, there are projected to be 52 people aged 65 and over for every 100 people of working age, up from 33 in 2025 — meaning fewer contributors will be supporting more retirees.
At the same time, the working-age population across OECD countries is expected to decline significantly over the coming decades, while public debt and competing government spending continue to rise. As a child growing up in the 1990s, I witnessed the collapse of a pension system firsthand, when many older people who had worked their entire lives felt they had lost what they were promised.
For those of us currently in our 30s and 40s, it is no longer unrealistic to question whether the pension system will exist in its current form by the time we reach retirement age, or whether it will be fundamentally restructured.
Pensions are not a natural law; they are a social system that depends on demographics, economics and political choices, all of which are changing. According to Tailor Brands, pension systems face an estimated $5.1 trillion unfunded liability when measured using market-based assumptions, leaving many plans less than 50% funded and raising doubts about their ability to meet long-term obligations.
If the goal is to build long-term income streams that can realistically function as a pension for my family, the entry point matters. I focus on businesses and investments that can start generating cash flow without large upfront capital. According to Durable’s 2026 small business analysis, many service-based businesses today can be started with an initial investment between $0 and $2,000 and reach paying customers relatively quickly. With that in mind, the ideas below are designed to compound quietly over the next 20 to 30 years.
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