When I look back at the history of software, one pattern emerges with remarkable consistency: the promise to simplify software creation, to make it cheaper, and ultimately to eliminate the need for programmers altogether. This is not a new idea. It has been the driving ambition of our industry since the 1960s. And while each generation believes they are witnessing something unprecedented, they are actually participating in a cycle that has repeated itself for over six decades.
Today, as large language models generate code and AI assistants pair-program with developers, we hear familiar refrains: programming as we know it is ending, software development will be democratized, and soon anyone will be able to build complex systems without writing a single line of code. These claims deserve scrutiny, not because they are entirely wrong, but because they echo promises made in 1959, in 1973, in 1985, and in 2015. Understanding this history is essential for anyone trying to make sense of where we actually are and where we might be going.
The Original Sin: COBOL and the Business User Dream
The story begins in the late 1950s, when programming was genuinely arcane. Programmers wrote in assembly language or machine code, manipulating registers and memory addresses directly. The work required deep technical knowledge and was painfully slow. Businesses needed software, but the people who understood business problems rarely understood computers, and the people who understood computers rarely understood business problems.
Enter Grace Hopper and the CODASYL committee. In 1959, they created COBOL, the Common Business-Oriented Language. The explicit goal was revolutionary: create a programming language so close to English that business managers could read it, understand it, and eventually write it themselves. The syntax was deliberately verbose. Instead of cryptic symbols, COBOL used words like MOVE, ADD, MULTIPLY, and PERFORM. A program read almost like a bureaucratic memo.
The marketing was clear: COBOL would eliminate the bottleneck of specialized programmers. Business analysts would write their own programs. The priesthood of technical experts would be disbanded. Software creation would be democratized.
It did not work out that way.
COBOL succeeded spectacularly as a programming language. It became the backbone of banking, insurance, and government systems worldwide. Billions of lines of COBOL code still run today, processing trillions of dollars in transactions. But COBOL did not eliminate programmers. Instead, it created a new profession of COBOL programmers. The language was readable, but writing correct, efficient, maintainable COBOL still required specialized skills, deep understanding of the underlying systems, and years of experience.
The irony is profound. A language created to eliminate the need for programmers became one of the most enduring job creators in the history of computing. Today, COBOL programmers are in high demand precisely because so few people learned the language, and the systems they maintain are too critical to replace.
The First AI Winter: Expert Systems and the 1970s Hype Cycle
... continue reading