A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical energy chokepoint—in the aftermath of US-Israeli attacks on Iran would not stay confined to the Gulf. Analysts say it could trigger a new inflation shock across the global economy, complicating monetary policy and putting pressure on the currencies of energy-importing countries.
The semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that the “Strait of Hormuz is shut down” following the strikes on Iran in the early hours of February 28. Vessels operating near the strait have also reported VHF radio warnings from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warning that “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz." On Sunday morning, authorities in Oman said that an oil tanker was attacked off the country's port of Khasab, which is in the Strait of Hormuz. It's unclear who conducted the strike.
Why the Strait Matters
Data from the US Energy Information Administration shows that about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day in 2024—roughly one fifth of global oil consumption.
Infographic showing map of the Gulf with refineries and liquefied natural gas terminals operational in February 2026, as well as maritime tanker traffic in the Gulf region. Infographic: Nalini Lepetit-Chella and Omar Kamal/Getty Images
The waterway is also critical for gas markets, with around 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade moving through the corridor linking the Gulf to the open ocean.
In practical terms, disruption in the strait would remove a significant share of the world’s energy supply from global markets almost immediately.
Legal Status and Market Reactions
The United Kingdom’s maritime monitoring center, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, said radio messages declaring the strait closed are not legally binding under international law. Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, transit through international straits remains protected unless physically prevented.
But markets and shipping companies often react to risk signals long before any formal blockade occurs.
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