GoKawiilToday Veritasium published a video about Newcomb's paradox: you walk into a room with one transparent box containing $1000, and one opaque box. You're allowed to either take both boxes or just take the opaque box. Before you walk in, a supercomputer predicted which choice you'd make, and put $1000000 in the opaque box if it predicted you'd take just the one, or $0 if it predicted you'd take both. Thousands of people have gone through the room, and the computer has always been right. What should you do?
I'm a fan of this paradox and I like Veritasium. But the way they describe the setup is wrong:
Don't worry about how the supercomputer is making its prediction. Instead of a computer, you could think of it as a superintelligent alien, a cunning demon, or even a team of the world's best psychologists. It really doesn't matter who or what is making the prediction.
It actually matters a lot.
Demons
If the predictor is Laplace's demon and genuinely knows the location and momentum of every particle in the universe, then sure, I buy that it can accurately predict what I'll choose.
Computers and psychologists
If the predictor is a computer or a team of psychologists, they can still predict a lot. The main discussion in the video is about how the predictor knows what thought process you're gonna use to decide whether to one-box or two-box, which I totally agree that a computer or psychologist can predict by knowing about your history and personality.
But come on. You know some smartasses are gonna walk in there and flip a coin. No supercomputer on Earth can predict that consistently.
So, my complaint about the Veritasium video is that they present it as if it doesn't matter whether there's anything supernatural going on.
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