Is the AI era the beginning of the end of VC as we know it?

The minimum viable team for building a significant technology business has dropped to one. Incredibly, when you think about it, US-based venture capital has remained structurally unchanged for half a century. The well known model revolves around the 10-year fund lifecycle, the 2-and-20 fee structure, and the relentless push for growth and outsized returns. Decisions are made in mysterious ways and are known to be full of bias against founders who don’t fit a certain mold.  But even as rivers of investment flow into anything touching AI, there may yet be an ironic twist to come.Venture investing involves optionality and power laws. Very few investments will generate any returns at all, but the sector is premised on the idea that within any portfolio there will be just a few startups that will enjoy a spectacular exit, through an initial public offering or by being acquired by a deep-pocketed established firm. VC’s are betting on their ability to sniff out the rare winners amidst a sea of potential startups. But in many ways, it’s a terrible business—by some accounts 95% of the industry’s total returns are generated by less than 5% of its firms.  Nonetheless, venture capital is firmly planted in the economy and in the public consciousness as the way that innovations get funded and businesses grow.