GoKawiilThis is CNBC's Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox. Happy Wednesday. And happy first day on the job to Josh D'Amaro, who today replaces Bob Iger as Disney's CEO. CNBC's Lillian Rizzo has more on what's in store for the Mouse House's new leader. Stock futures are rising this morning. All three major indexes closed higher on Tuesday. Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:
1. Hold your horses
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), at the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., U.S., Dec. 10, 2025. Kevin Lamarque | Reuters
It's Fed Day, but don't get too excited. Traders are all but certain the Federal Reserve will stay on hold as it weighs inflation concerns, a murky labor market and the Iran war. Here's what to know: Fed funds futures are pricing in a near-zero chance that the Federal Open Market Committee cuts rates today, instead betting that the central bank's key interest rate remains between 3.5% to 3.75%.
Hopes for a cut at today's meeting were slim even before the Iran war began. But the conflict's fallout — namely surging oil prices and inflation fears — has pushed rate-cut projections back even further.
Futures pricing now indicates that the central bank will wait until at least September to ease rates and will only issue one cut this year. Before the war, markets saw two cuts, with the first in June.
All eyes will be on Chair Jerome Powell for insight into Fed officials' thinking. Traders might be hesitant to give his comments too much credence, though, as Powell's term as chair nears its end.
Meanwhile, February's producer price index is due out at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning.
Follow live market updates here.
2. Future tense
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