GoKawiilis features writer with five years of experience covering the companies that shape technology and the people who use their tools.
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Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi
Prediction markets are working to ingratiate themselves with mainstream news and culture: The Golden Globes broadcast in January was plastered with Polymarket odds, the AP is licensing election data to Kalshi, and a partnership between Polymarket and Substack means more prediction market data in newsletters.
Some prediction market exchanges are now attempting to strike deals with individual reporters. Rick Ellis, an independent entertainment journalist who runs AllYourScreens.com and writes a newsletter on Substack about TV and streaming, told The Verge he received an offer this week.
The deal involved producing two stories a week based on data from prediction markets — in Ellis’ case, that could be things like who might win this season of Survivor or which couples will end up together at the conclusion of Love Is Blind. Ellis said the proposed payment was in the “mid to upper hundreds [of dollars] per post,” with potential for more money if the article hit certain metrics like click-throughs. Ellis declined to name the specific exchange the offer came from.
“I’ve been a reporter all my life, on and off,” Ellis says. “I don’t mind being pitched something. Maybe I see something and say, ‘Oh, this would be a good story.’ But getting paid to do it just crosses a line that I just wasn’t willing to do.”
Journalists are regularly approached by PR firms, data providers, and other entities hoping to get coverage of their work, which may lead to inclusion in a story. Both independent media and large newsrooms sometimes publish work that is sponsored by a company, although the sponsor has no editorial sway. Getting paid to mention a company or use a specific firm’s data, though, would breach many outlets’ ethics policies (I would certainly be fired, for example).
Kalshi declined to comment; Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.
Do you have information about Polymarket or Kalshi? Reach out to the reporter via email at [email protected], or on Signal at @miasato.11.
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