GoKawiilAI’s insatiable demand for power has tech companies hunting for new energy sources — a search that has fueled competition and investment into fusion and fission startups.
For many, natural gas is the easy answer for 24/7, baseload power. It’s tested, inexpensive, and widely available. But the war in the Middle East exposed its vulnerable supply chain after Iranian drone strikes took out a significant portion of natural gas infrastructure in Qatar, a major exporter. At the same time, surging demand has created a waitlist for gas turbines so long that today’s orders probably won’t be fulfilled until the early 2030s.
Those delays not only pose a risk to tech companies, but also to the natural gas industry itself.
In the U.S., 40% of the natural gas consumed today goes toward generating electricity. By the time the turbine shortages relent, the industry could be flush with a fresh crop of competitors. Both small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) startups and fusion power startups plan to start connecting their first commercial power plants to the grid in the next five to seven years, about how long it takes to get parts for a new natural gas power plant.
Nuclear threat
SMR startups might have the best shot at displacing natural gas power plants. In many instances, the technology tweaks the designs of existing fission reactors, but the fundamental physics has been proven and widely used for decades.
Several SMR companies aim to have reactors up and running before the decade is over. Kairos Power, which counts Google as a future customer, is one of them. The company received approval for its Hermes 2 demonstration reactor in 2024, and construction is well underway. Oklo, which merged with Sam Altman’s blank check company in 2024, is targeting 2028 for its first commercial operations, according to its annual report.
Others hope to follow a few years later. X-energy, which counts Amazon as an investor, is aiming for the early 2030s, while the Bill Gates-founded TerraPower, which has a deal with Meta, is planning to begin commercial operations in 2030.
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