GoKawiilTrendForce has revised its 2026 notebook shipment forecast downward, with Apple standing out as the exception. Here are the details.
Weak demand, rising costs, and supply chain restructuring to play a significant role in 2026
TrendForce has updated its outlook for the global notebook market in 2026, lowering its shipment forecast from its previous estimate:
Global notebook shipments are showing clear signs of further weakening, according to TrendForce’s latest findings on the notebook industry. Subsequently, TrendForce has revised its 2026 full-year shipment forecast downward from -9.2% to -14.8% YoY amid expectations of deteriorating end-market demand and rising supply chain costs, reflecting a deeper industry correction.
Two main factors drove the downward revision. First, TrendForce cites “macroeconomic headwinds” for a weaker-than-expected recovery in the consumer market. Second, it says rising component costs, partly due to “the rapid expansion of computing demand for AI,” will put additional pressure on pricing across the industry.
From the report:
As key component costs continue to climb, notebook brands are gradually passing these increases on to end-market pricing to preserve margins.
TrendForce expects prices to keep rising in the coming quarters, which in turn will make consumers even more cautious and more reluctant to make new acquisitions.
As for Apple, TrendForce echoed the notion that the company is better positioned to handle these pressures thanks to its reduced reliance on external suppliers, along with long-term partnerships and supply agreements:
Apple has recently introduced a lower-priced model, the MacBook Neo. Key factors behind this move include its in-house Apple Silicon chips, which reduce reliance on external CPU suppliers and provide greater flexibility in capacity allocation and cost negotiations. Additionally, Apple’s highly standardized product specifications, streamlined model lineup, and concentrated memory capacities and configurations enable it to scale procurement volumes and strengthen long-term contract negotiations.
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