GoKawiilIn mid-March, conspiracy theories swirled claiming Benjamin Netanyahu had been replaced by an AI clone. Though there was no actual proof that the Israeli Prime Minister had been injured or killed, on X this spurred a flurry of posts promoting prediction markets where people bet on whether he would be out of office by March 31st. One newly created Polymarket account in particular caught the attention of bettors: dududududu22, which had purchased more than $177,000 worth of “Yes” shares at 4.7 cents. Surely, only someone with inside knowledge would take such a risky position?
“This makes him possible to get paid of $3,779,000 in case of win,” a post with a link to the Polymarket profile reads. Notably, the post is marked as a paid partnership.
On the market page, other users shout out dududududu22’s huge bet: “dudu please tell us something 😁,” reads one comment. “I want to buy because of dududududu22,” someone with the username “elonmusk911” commented. Dududududu22’s positions are currently worth just $1,889.53, after the price of “Yes” shares tanked to less than 1 cent. Because of Polymarket’s crypto foundations, the actions of dududududu22 are at once transparent and also keep them completely anonymous. Did they actually have insider knowledge of some kind, or were they going off of a hunch?
Claims of finding “insiders” are not always as they seem
But claims of finding “insiders” are not always as they seem. The peer-to-peer betting nature of prediction markets means odds are ever-changing as other users buy and sell their positions. (The price of “Yes” and the price of “No” on a given event market fluctuate, but equal $1. “Yes” and “No” each being worth 50 cents means users believe the outcome is a toss-up; when the event happens, your shares are worth either $1 a piece, or nothing.) Polymarket and Kalshi push the idea that the “wisdom of the crowd” is more powerful than traditional sources of information. The crowd, as it turns out, can also be easily influenced — including by content paid for by prediction markets.
Despite bans on insider trading, content about it is great for juicing engagement. (Polymarket trading data is public, giving creators endless sources of things to post.) At every hour of the day, bettors on X flood the platform with attention grabbing posts that — depending on the person — are either more evidence of widespread, unmitigated cheating, or a hint at what to bet on next.
The posts are largely about Polymarket, the world’s biggest prediction market where users can bet on future events, like the outcome of sporting events or whether there will be layoffs in the tech industry (though it’s usually sports). An increasingly vocal opposition argues that what companies like Polymarket offer is really just gambling under a different name. But bettors are tapped in: On X, post after post claims to spot unusual activity suggestive of insider trading.
“BREAKING: A suspected military insider won $90k correctly predicting 9 separate military events! This guy is now betting big on US forces entering Iran!” one post reads. Follow-up posts about the account publicize the next bet, that US forces will enter Iran by March 31st.
“This guy is either very good at [open-source intelligence], very lucky, or might get info from people,” a tweet that includes the Polymarket profile says. It is also marked as a paid partnership.
There is often a juvenile, meme-like energy in these spaces, where finance guys and WAGMI crypto culture collide (“We’re All Gonna Make It” is technically speaking impossible with the basic function of prediction markets — one person winning necessitates that the other side loses). If TikTok influencers sell you a beautiful, aspirational lifestyle, prediction market influencers are selling you something more ruthless: the dream of monetizing life itself, of profiting when something happens to another person. The fervent energy behind prediction markets is fueled by its own content ecosystem, which is often backed by Polymarket and Kalshi’s marketing teams. More online engagement begets more action across platforms.
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