GoKawiilFor half a century humans thought they understood the moon: a static, airless, waterless landscape without many mysteries to solve. But orbiting instruments and robotic missions have proven otherwise. The most studied satellite in the solar system is more complex than it seems, and many fundamental questions remain open.
NASA is about to return to the moon with the Artemis program. While Artemis II and III will be missions to orbit the satellite, Artemis IV will put astronauts on the surface for the first time since the Apollo era. The ambitious plan is to lay the groundwork for a sustained presence that will generate a steady stream of data and samples.
Some lunar mysteries will be solved because of the abundant samples and the technology being delivered. Not all the answers will come at once, and the results will probably be slow in coming, but they've never been closer to being solved. Here is a list of enigmas that could be clarified, with realistic scenarios, in the next 10 to 20 years.
What Is the Origin of the Moon?
The dominant theory of the moon's origin proposes that it arose after the collision of a Mars-sized planet with a proto-Earth some 4.5 billion years ago. Some of the material ejected by that impact clumped together and solidified to form the satellite that orbits Earth today.
However, this hypothesis depends on complex simulations and a limited set of samples brought back by Apollo 50 years ago. Direct access to new, unaltered rocks, combined with modern analysis techniques, could provide much stronger evidence. Of course, it will be necessary to access deep materials, such as mantle fragments exposed in craters or impact zones, and to reconstruct the chronology of the ancient lunar magma ocean. The hard part will be getting there; the rest is science.
How Much Water Is on the Moon—and What Is It Like?
Half a century ago it was believed that the moon was completely dry. Scientists have since established that there is ice in the permanently shadowed craters at the south pole and that some of the water is trapped in crystalline form within minerals on the surface. The big question is how much there is and whether it is usable for future lunar bases.
One of first tasks of future Artemis missions will be to explore these craters. If they find ice, they will need to determine whether it is mixed with regolith, whether it forms compact slabs, or whether there are purer deposits to be found. In the best-case scenario, the resource is abundant and processable for oxygen or fuel. In the worst case, it is so dispersed that extracting it would be unfeasible.
What Is the Moon’s Internal Structure?
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